Esimesed valguskiired maailma-majanduses?!

Danske Banki viimases Business Cycle Monitoris on juhitud tähelepanu esimestele positiivsetele märkidele globaalses majanduses:

Overall signs of a bottom in the global industrial cycle have continued in the February indicators. China has been leading the way showing a further rise in PMI and the US managed to eke out a small rise in ISM – despite declines in some regional surveys. In Europe data have been more mixed, with manufacturing PMI falling in both Euroland and the UK. OECD's leading indicators are showing signs of bottoming out in most regions and a stabilisation in commodity prices and the Baltic Freight Index offers further evidence for stabilisation in manufacturing production.
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Going forward we continue to look for a further rise in leading indicators as the inventory draw down comes to an end and the massive stimuli worldwide starts to kick in. We expect the rise to be strongest in Asia and the US, while European indicators will likely show a more muted increase."

Need kolmetähelised lühendid tähendavad erinevaid majandususaldusindekseid (business confidence indicators) ja on tihti kõige kiiremad indikaatorid majanduskeskkonna muutumisest. Arvestades nende indikaatorite madalat taset, näitavad täheldatud positiivsed muutused küll kõigest seda, et majandus jätkab langemist, kuid aeglasemalt kui enne. Aga asi seegi.

Enne kui positiivsed arengud Ameerikast läbi Euroopa meieni jõuavad läheb aga paraku veel kaua aega - Eesti majandususaldusindeks kukkus veebruaris kolinal kõigi aegade madalamale tasemele.