Tuesday, December 27, 2005

My New Year's promise

End of a year is a time for new promises. Aside of trying to become rich, of course, i've come up with a more socially acceptable calculation of what to do with my time.
There are 15,5 hours of free time in my day (i do need 8,5 hours of sleep on average)
Which makes it 470 hours a month on average.
I plan to use 5% of that time on social activities next year, i.e. 23,5 hours a month.
And to allow for my financial analyst's mindset, i also consider monetary value of time according to my average hourly wage. So that instead of spending my time, i can spend part of that in money.
So 5% of my non-sleeping resoruces next year will be devoted to good cause. And i call upon everybody to follow.
I will post my half-year report on the issue in July.

Saturday, December 17, 2005

sportsmen

There are two kinds of sportsmen. There are ones that after winning a competition say that he is the king and all the others are losers and nobody can beat him. And there is a second kind who say that all his competitors are very strong and capable sportsman and that he is thankful and honoured to be able to beat them this time.
With the first kind i always have the question, that who are you then? A winner over weaks? The best among losers? What does it make of you? A best loser?

Äripäev rokib jälle

Reedel otsustas Äripäev jälle arvamust avaldada majanduse teemadel. Eeldatavasti taheti taas kõige paremat, aga välja kukkus nagu alati. Peeter Raidla on taas ülehinnanud oma võimet teha majanduslikku analüüsi - kahju, et selline lugu ilma igasuguse kontrollita lehte ja otse esiküljele lastakse. Kogu analüüs on vigane ja vale nii arvutuskäigu kui sisendinfo poolest.
Esiteks siis teeme arvutuskäigu uuesti üle võttes aluseks Äripäevnike enda arvud. Kõigepealt arvutame Skanska eeldatava investeeringu suuruse: Äripäeva hinnangul on koguinvesteering 765 milj. Osaliselt tasutakse see 10-aastase laenuga, millelt tasutakse 110 milj. intresse. Äripäev küll ei avalda, kuidas sellise numbrini jõuti, aga no eeldame, et sellise projekti jaoks on võimalik saada laenu intressiga 4%. Eeldades annuiteetmakseid saame laenu suuruseks orienteeruvalt 472 milj. Seega peab Skanska investeerima oma vahendeid 293 miljonit krooni. Järgmisel aastal saadakse 360 milj. krooni tulu + igal aastal veel 36,2 miljonit ja 31. aastal veel 550 miljonit (kõik hinnad tänastes hindades). Sellest tuleb esimesel 10 aastal maha lahutada laenumakse 58 miljonit ja iga-aastaselt veel 0,28 miljonit hoonestusõiguse tasu.
Kui arvutada nendest rahavoogudest investeeringu tootlus aasta baasil saame selleks 12,4%, millele tuleb lisada inflatsioonimäär, kuna tegime arvestused tänastes hindades. Igati normaalne tootlus, kuigi Eesti investorid ootavad täna kinnisvarasektoris tõenäoliselt suuremat protsenti. Aga kui leiaks mõne skandinaavia investeerimisfondi, kes Eestit igati sõbralikuks maaks peab ja ka munitsipaalmajade arendusse usub, siis võiks leida investori küll.
Paraku on aga Äripäeva ajakirjanikud täielikult ära unustanud, et kortereid tuleb vähemalt iga 10-15 aasta tagant korralikult renoveerida, parandada katuseid, vahetada tehnosüsteeme jne. Samuti on Skanskale jäetud lepinguga kohustus maja hallata, st. kogu suhtlust rentnikega ja lepingupartneritega. Ka on Skanska kanda kogu risk raha laekumise osas. Viimati kirjutas Äripäev, et munitsipaalmajade rentnikest on 10% kroonilised võlglased, st. ei tasu oma arveid. Viimaks on Skanska kanda ka kõik maksuriskid, st. nii saabuv tulumaks kui võimalik kinnisvaramaks. Kui need kulud juurde arvata, siis tulud vähenevad oluliselt. Nii et ei jäägi eriti suurt tootlust.
Igatahes mina küll ei kadesta Skanskat selle projekti võitmise pärast. Küll aga suhtun taas kord kraadi võrra halvemini Äripäeva ajakirjanduslikku tasemesse. Seda enam, et Äripäeva arvamustoimetuse juht Aivar Hundimägi on antud artiklile põhinedes arendanud üles terve konspiratsiooniteooria Skanska EMV juhi Otsa ja Savisaare suhetest. Kahju kui lihtsast rumalusest selliseid sisutuid skandaale üritatakse üles puhuda.

Thursday, December 15, 2005

Iraq elections

First good news are coming in - BBC, CNN
"It's a day of victory, a day of independence and freedom" - 60-year-old Shia Muslim Mohammed Ahmed al-Bayati

Wednesday, December 14, 2005

Iraq before the elections

Amid political discussions home and mainly anecdotal evidence presented by news agencies, it would be interesting to know what ordinary people in Iraq think about the situation. Unfortunately, as there are no low cost carriers flying to Baghdad yet, that is not so easy to do. Luckily, Oxford Research International carries out annual polls, interviewing 1700 inhabitants in different regions.

What emerges from their recent poll is a positively thinking country with strong faith in unity of Iraq. 61% believe that the government is doing a good job (everywhere, except for Sunni-dominated center the percentage is >70%). Despite the claims that democracy was forced upon Iraqis against their will, 57% believe that democracy is the best way forward for the country. Islamic state has much less support than appears from media coverage (14%). Approximately 70% think that life will be better a year from now.

From the negative side however, the country seems to break apart with Sunnis sounding much more negative about every aspect of their life. The Sunni dominated areas are also the ones where large majority of the violent acts take place. In Kurdistan, with its relatively long history of semi-independence, 50% support some form independence from the central government. And although Iraqis in general support all that the foreign troops stand for (democracy, security, training of local army, protecting infrastructure, etc.) the coalition forces themselves remain highly unpopular.

The message the poll carries for any country with its troops in Iraq is that we are doing the right thing. When hunting down insurgents, protecting oil pipelines, and endorsing democracy, we are fighting the war for Iraqis not demolishing the Islamic way of life in the name of American interests. If the elections tomorrow will involve more Sunnis into the political process, there is great hope that people in the center of the country have more support for the governement and less for the insurgents. This is the best hope of turning Iraq into a peaceful democratic state. This is a good aim to fight for.

Thursday, December 08, 2005

Brändi jõust

Naljakas. Inimene võib küll vihata ühte brändi, olla veendunud selle halvas kvaliteedis, algatada isegi kodanikuliikumist selle vastu, aga võõrasse linna sattudes astub ikka sisse sellesse samasse söögikohta, sest ta teab, mis teda seal ees ootab ning palju ta selle eest maksma peab.
Ei saa inimeseloom majanduse kiretute reeglite vastu.

Et minu jutust mõte leida loe palun Liisu blogi. Kõigepealt siit ja siis siit.

Thursday, December 01, 2005

Tüdrukute väljanäitus

Uskumatu. Saabki Eestis lugeda lehest täitsa argumenteeritud juttu. Olin juba lootuse kaotanud. Aga siin ta on väitede taga on loogilised põhjus-tagajärg seletused, aru on saada, miks ja mida kirjutatakse, koguni teatud konstruktiivne kaasus on olemas. Ei jahuta midagi "neoliberalismiga tembitatud uuskonservatismist", mis kohe-kohe kõik halva korraga kaela toob nagu sama lehekülje põhiartiklis. Eesti ajalehe kohta väga kõva artikkel.

Aga nõus ei ole ma selle artikliga siiski. Liisa käsitleb loo teises pooles noorte hobitegevust kui piiratud ressurssi: kui tegeled tantsu ja moega, õpid ilusti istuma ja astuma, siis enam haridusega tegeleda ei saa. Isiklik elukogemus näitab vastupidist: kes palju teeb see rohkem jõuab. Paljud targad poisid ja tüdrukud tegelevad noortena edukalt nii spordi, tantsimise, muusika ja muuga.

Ma võin ju veel uskuda, et kui vanemad mind muusikakooli ja trenni ajasid, siis isa oli veendumusel, et ega minusugusest joodikust nagunii asja ei saa, ehk saab kõrtsumuusikki ja ema tahtis mulle kätte näidata minu soorolli, "signaliseerides, et poisil usutakse just sellel alal olevat kõige rohkem tulevikku" ning pedagoogid ka ei uskunud, et noor inimene võiks midagi intellektuualset teha; aga vastupidiselt Liisa väidetele ei tundnud ma ennast kuidagi ühiskonnas madalamal staatusel olevat kui need klassiõed, kes ainult õppimisega tegelesid.

Seega usun ma, et igasugune kooliväline tegevus (lõpuks ju tegeleb iga õpilane selle "intellektuualsega" ligi 8 tundi päevas) on igati positiivne. Inimese areng peab olema mitmekülgne, seda on vaja ka tulevases elus edasi jõudmiseks. Ma ei arva, et inimestele ilus olemise õpetamine signaliseeriks kuidagi intellektuaalsuse tähtsusetust. Ja mina eelistan alati tark ja ilusat inimest lihtsalt targale.
Iseasi kui see iluõpetus toimuks muude huvide/hobide arvelt. Aga siin jõuan tagasi oma esimese väiteni, et kes palju teeb see rohkem jõuab.
Nii et: Jõudu tööle chikid!

Blair'i visiit

Kristjan Otsmann oma blogis avaldab oma kindlat veendumust, et seoses Blairi visiidiga ahistatakse Tallinnlasi, kel ei lasta autoga mööda linna vabalt ringi kimada.
Mul tekkis selle peale küsimus, et kellele neid turva meetmeid rohkem vaja on: Blairile või Eestile. Inglastel ju lihtne: kui Blair surma saab, panevad Gordon Browni posti ja elu läheb edasi. Aga enam ei tule keegi meiega arutama, kui meile antavat raha vähendada tahetakse. Ja kuna me ise ka eriti Brüsselis häält ei viici teha, siis ma ikkagi eelistaks, et Tony täna ellu jääks ja meie poolt ikka läbi astuks kui miskit arutada on. Selle nimel tasub natuke turvameetmeid karmistada küll. Ma ikka kodus ka enne külaliste tulekut teen platsi puhtaks ja vaatan, et igasugu lutikad ja täid ründama ei pääseks.

Niiet kallid kaaslinlased olge siis täna kauem tööl või käige jala. Mõlemad tulevad kasuks.

Wednesday, November 30, 2005

Clockwork orange

I read the Clockwork Orange by Anthongy Burgess yesterday.
Very powerful book, especially if read in one breath from the beginning till the end. I came back from work planning to go to gym or jogging. Instead i played saxophone for 20 minutes and then thought i just read a page or two. Didn't finish until the end.

The book tries to show how wrong it is to try to change a person's behaviour, by making something (which he initially likes) utterly discusting by associating it with negative feelings. It definetely has a point. Being a liberal, i've always opposed government action aimed at protecting a person from himself. Still, i also believe that the society was made better off by eliminating Alex's will for violence. Controversial indeed.

I read the book in Estonian translation which seemed very odd and annoying in the beginning but once i got used to it, it appeared to be an excellent translation. It managed to channel the full power of the book right into me. I now realise why the movie by Kubrick was banned for years in UK. At the same time, i do not yet feel that i would like to kill someone, just because i can...

I strongly recommend the book as well as the movie.

Monday, November 28, 2005

And who are you???

You are a

Social Liberal
(61% permissive)

and an...

Economic Conservative
(63% permissive)

You are best described as a:

Centrist










Link: The Politics Test on Ok Cupid

Saturday, November 26, 2005

Comments in web portals

Recently, there has been a lot of discussion about anonymous comments posted on web portals, in Estonia. Many of these comments have promoted violence or hatred, violating the constitution. As it is very difficult to track down the person who posted such comments, criminal investigation has rarely been started.

Today, i was having an argument on the issue with my cousin. Having a degree in law, she was strongly convinced that the portals should be held responsible for the illegal content, like newspapers are responsible for all the material they publish. I tried to refute her on the grounds that web portals are a public medium and nobody can or should answer for the content but the writer.

I later developed the idea looking at it from the point of practicality. The comments section in web portals (or newspapers' on-line versions) is built on mutual interest. It is benefitial for the portal (otherwise they wouldn't have such sections) as well as for readers and commenters (otherwise they wouldn't be commenting). For the system to function, both sides must be motivated to contribute.

Clearly, for the web portal the benefit arises from attracting readers back for additional information with very little additional cost for the company. However, if the portals should be held responsible for the content, they should read all the comments received before publishing which would incur significant costs, thus making it impractical to run the comments section at all. So who would be losing out from this are the commenters and those reading them, large majority of whom are not disbehaving in any measure. As most popular articles in delfi.ee receive more than 1000 comments, the crowd should not be underestimated.

I believe that one of the most important tasks of a judicial system in any democratic country is to prevent crime without restricting the liberties and opportunities of those behaving lawfully. Based on this i am convinced that it would be wrong (if easy) solution to put the blame for the comments on the portal.