Sunday, August 24, 2008
Should Georgia-supporters boycott the concert of Mariinsky Orchestra in Tallinn?
Although culture and politics should not be mixed, they very often are. Sometimes this is done by the politicians but sometimes by the culture-people themselves. In an interesting turn of events the opening concert of Estonian national concert organizer Eesti Concert, is given by Mariinsky Theater Orchestra, which just this week gave a concert in South Ossetia to support Russian military activities there. If the orchestra chooses to be a weapon in a propaganda war, it should be only right to dismiss their cultural message. I would like to boycott their concert, but unfortunately i am in Crete at the time.
Wednesday, July 16, 2008
How many new countries will there be in Europe in 2050?
While recently most new countries have been evolving in the Balkans, the Western Europe does not seem immune from it as well.
Last fall the Economist asked: "If Belgium did not already exist, would anyone nowadays take the trouble to invent it?". Belgium is divided along its linguistic lines between french-speaking Walloonia and dutch-speaking Flemish region. They only vote for their own political parties, thus after last election it took 9 months to agree upon a new government. Now, the new prime minister has decided to resign, so new talks about the viability of the country emerge. Certain Ideas of Europe blog is asking: "Time to dissolve Belgium?".
Also, recently i talked with some friends of my friend from Catalonia, a region in Spain. And it struck me, that there are many people want to break free from the Spanish rule there. And then there are of course the Basques and the Scottish...
One more question is, how would these countries become part of EU (if they want it, of course)? If the Catalans managed to break free from Spain, it is hard to see Spain allowing them to join the EU. And if Belgium would break up into two new countries, would Brussels be outside of EU until the new countries go through their accession periods?
Last fall the Economist asked: "If Belgium did not already exist, would anyone nowadays take the trouble to invent it?". Belgium is divided along its linguistic lines between french-speaking Walloonia and dutch-speaking Flemish region. They only vote for their own political parties, thus after last election it took 9 months to agree upon a new government. Now, the new prime minister has decided to resign, so new talks about the viability of the country emerge. Certain Ideas of Europe blog is asking: "Time to dissolve Belgium?".
Also, recently i talked with some friends of my friend from Catalonia, a region in Spain. And it struck me, that there are many people want to break free from the Spanish rule there. And then there are of course the Basques and the Scottish...
One more question is, how would these countries become part of EU (if they want it, of course)? If the Catalans managed to break free from Spain, it is hard to see Spain allowing them to join the EU. And if Belgium would break up into two new countries, would Brussels be outside of EU until the new countries go through their accession periods?
Thursday, July 10, 2008
Copenhagen Consensus - "Stop Kyoto!"
Second Copenhagen Consensus Expert Panel has published their analysis about where global aid and development projects could do most good for least amount of money (read here). And for second time in a row climate change is the worst case - a huge investment for rather limited and unpredictable gain.
So what were the most yielding foreign aid projects? Micronutrient supplements for children (vitamin A and zinc); The Doha development agenda; Micronutrient fortification (iron and salt iodization); Expanded immunization coverage for children. Simple and rather cheap ideas that would make a huge difference to the living quality of hundreds of millions of people in the poor world.
This finding was based in part on research by a lead author for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – the group that shared last year’s Nobel Peace Prize – who noted that spending $800 billion over 100 years solely on mitigating emissions would reduce inevitable temperature rises by just 0.2 degrees Celsius by the end of this century. Even taking into account some of the key environmental damage from warming, we would lose money on the investment, with returns of just $685 billion.So maybe the developing world is right to say that if rich countries want to establish expensive schemes for carbon trading or carbon tax, they may do it, but having millions of poor people to feed and nurse, the less well off regions must focus on more burning issues.
...
It makes little sense for the world to impoverish itself by embracing a poor solution to one problem when there are more pressing challenges that can be resolved at smaller expense.
So what were the most yielding foreign aid projects? Micronutrient supplements for children (vitamin A and zinc); The Doha development agenda; Micronutrient fortification (iron and salt iodization); Expanded immunization coverage for children. Simple and rather cheap ideas that would make a huge difference to the living quality of hundreds of millions of people in the poor world.
Wednesday, July 02, 2008
Alzheimer's Disease
Some biotech blogging:
Technology Review reports that a Californian company Satoris has developed a simple blood test that can detect Alzheimer's Disease (AD) 2 years before clinicians.
Currently, AD can only be definitely diagnosed after death, and before that clinicians define Alzheimer's as dementia for which they have found no other reason. So a good diagnostic tool is certainly required.
However, two issues arise. The company says that their test is "nearly 90% accurate". That might sound good, but then again for a 70-year-old, the probability of having a AD is around 0,5%. Now, imagine that we test million 70-year-olds and 5 000 of them have AD. Our test is able to detect 4 500 of them. But also the test gives us 10% false positives among the healthy 995 000, which amounts to 99 500 cases. Alltogether we receive 104 000 positive test results but only 4 500 of them actually have the disease. So all of a sudden, our 90% accurate test can only give us a 4,3% probability of a person having AD.
The other problem is reported in the article:
Alzheimer's Disease certainly remains one of the most important challenges for pharmaceutical companies, but most obviously a real breakthrough is nowhere in sight. Well, they have 39 years before i turn 65 and enter the risk group!
Technology Review reports that a Californian company Satoris has developed a simple blood test that can detect Alzheimer's Disease (AD) 2 years before clinicians.
Currently, AD can only be definitely diagnosed after death, and before that clinicians define Alzheimer's as dementia for which they have found no other reason. So a good diagnostic tool is certainly required.
However, two issues arise. The company says that their test is "nearly 90% accurate". That might sound good, but then again for a 70-year-old, the probability of having a AD is around 0,5%. Now, imagine that we test million 70-year-olds and 5 000 of them have AD. Our test is able to detect 4 500 of them. But also the test gives us 10% false positives among the healthy 995 000, which amounts to 99 500 cases. Alltogether we receive 104 000 positive test results but only 4 500 of them actually have the disease. So all of a sudden, our 90% accurate test can only give us a 4,3% probability of a person having AD.
The other problem is reported in the article:
However, until there are better treatments for Alzheimer's disease, [David] Michelson [vice president of neuroscience at Merck] says that diagnostic tests will be most useful as a research tool because "what's the use of confirming a diagnosis early if you can't do anything about it, if you don't have a treatment that could change what can happen?"Indeed!
Alzheimer's Disease certainly remains one of the most important challenges for pharmaceutical companies, but most obviously a real breakthrough is nowhere in sight. Well, they have 39 years before i turn 65 and enter the risk group!
Wednesday, June 04, 2008
Balkans - here I come!
I am soon to start a 13-day road-trip to South-Eastern Europe. The first stop will be Prague. After that my trip-mates and i will decide on the go where to go. My personal wish is to go to Albania, Montenegro, and Kosovo, but we'll see how it works out.
I will probably not be blogging during the trip, but i'll back soon!
Meanwhile, if you have a good idea how to recover one's e-mails, contacts, tasks, and calendar from an .ost file after deleting (#*@!?#£#*!!!) the respective e-mail account, i would appreciate your help!
I will probably not be blogging during the trip, but i'll back soon!
Meanwhile, if you have a good idea how to recover one's e-mails, contacts, tasks, and calendar from an .ost file after deleting (#*@!?#£#*!!!) the respective e-mail account, i would appreciate your help!
Has there ever been a real-estate boom in Estonia?
On May 22nd Economist wrote that Spain has built more than 4 million dwellings during last 10 years. That makes 88 new dwellings per 1000 inhabitants. In Estonia, 26 000 new dwellings were built during 1998-2007 (28% of them in 2007). That makes only 19 dwellings per 1000 inhabitants. If you look at it that way, there has never been an oversupply of real-estate here.
Then again, the population of Spain has grown by 5,7 million inhabitants over the same period whereas Estonia's has fallen by 52 000. Considering that on average there are (roughly) two inhabitants per dwelling in Europe, 2,85 million new dwellings were needed to accommodate the new Spaniards, so only 1,15m new dwellings were constructed to improve the housing stock. That amounts to 25 new dwellings per 1000 inhabitants.
In Estonia, by the same calculation 26 000 dwellings were vacated, so 52 000 new free dwellings came to the market during last decade - that is 39 per 1000 inhabitants. So go figure who had more of a construction boom.
Then again, the population of Spain has grown by 5,7 million inhabitants over the same period whereas Estonia's has fallen by 52 000. Considering that on average there are (roughly) two inhabitants per dwelling in Europe, 2,85 million new dwellings were needed to accommodate the new Spaniards, so only 1,15m new dwellings were constructed to improve the housing stock. That amounts to 25 new dwellings per 1000 inhabitants.
In Estonia, by the same calculation 26 000 dwellings were vacated, so 52 000 new free dwellings came to the market during last decade - that is 39 per 1000 inhabitants. So go figure who had more of a construction boom.
Tuesday, June 03, 2008
Ärileht: Viga Excelis võib eelarve uppi lüüa
Villu Zirnask kirjutab eelviimases Ärilehes vigadest Excelis ja väidab, et üle 90% Exceli töölehtest sisaldab vigu. Kuna olen ka ise oma elus Exceliga päris palju tööd teinud, siis kipun väitega nõustuma. Arvan, et ma pole näinud ühtegi vähegi keerulisemat Exceli arvutust, mis on tehtud ühe inimese poolt ja ei sisaldaks mõnda viga. Usun, et ka kõigis mu enda excelites on peale valmimist vead sees ja mõned on neist jäänud sinna pikaks ajaks.
Mis on lahendused? Niisama exceli tabeli kontrollimine peale valmimist on minu meelest mõttetu. See on ilgelt nüri töö ja oma vigu on ka raske tuvastada. Ja kui kasutada piisavalt palju funktsioone, siis läheb järje hoidmine üsna keeruliseks (eriti lemmikud muidugi funktsioonid offset, vlookup, jne). Siiski on üks vahend selle töö struktuursemaks ja tulemuslikumaks tegemiseks - väike makroproge TrafficLights.xla*. Olen seda ise kasutanud ja avastanud sellega kiirelt päris palju vigasid (nii oma kui teiste excelitest). Programmi häda on see, et ta töötab ainult arvutustega, mis mahuvad ühe sheeti peale.
Järgmine alternatiiv on lasta kellelgi teisel oma excelit kontrollida. Aga see on tihti veel võimatum, kui enda oma üle vaadata. Kui sa ikka ei tea, kust mingi info tulema peab, siis võidki jääda ühte sheeti läbi vaatama. Ja tõenäoliselt tekib pärast 10 minutit selline tülpimus, et vigade märkamise tõenäosus läheb nulli.
Kolmas ja tõenäoliselt kõige effektiivsem versioon on see, mida juba aastakümneid on kasutanud NASA. Nimelt tehakse igast olulisemast arvutusest teine versioon, mis tugineb samadele sisenditele, kuid mille koostaja pole esimest kalkulatsiooni näinud ja teeb nullist täiesti uue kalkulatsiooni. Loogiliselt peaks tulemus tulema sama. Kui ei tule, saab hakata otsima, kus on viga. Loogiline ja otseselt tulemusele suunatud tegevus.
*TrafficLights.xla peaks olema downloaditav sellelt lingilt: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/eusprig/files/TrafficLights.xla, aga selleks peab vist selle Yahoo-grupiga liituma.
Mis on lahendused? Niisama exceli tabeli kontrollimine peale valmimist on minu meelest mõttetu. See on ilgelt nüri töö ja oma vigu on ka raske tuvastada. Ja kui kasutada piisavalt palju funktsioone, siis läheb järje hoidmine üsna keeruliseks (eriti lemmikud muidugi funktsioonid offset, vlookup, jne). Siiski on üks vahend selle töö struktuursemaks ja tulemuslikumaks tegemiseks - väike makroproge TrafficLights.xla*. Olen seda ise kasutanud ja avastanud sellega kiirelt päris palju vigasid (nii oma kui teiste excelitest). Programmi häda on see, et ta töötab ainult arvutustega, mis mahuvad ühe sheeti peale.
Järgmine alternatiiv on lasta kellelgi teisel oma excelit kontrollida. Aga see on tihti veel võimatum, kui enda oma üle vaadata. Kui sa ikka ei tea, kust mingi info tulema peab, siis võidki jääda ühte sheeti läbi vaatama. Ja tõenäoliselt tekib pärast 10 minutit selline tülpimus, et vigade märkamise tõenäosus läheb nulli.
Kolmas ja tõenäoliselt kõige effektiivsem versioon on see, mida juba aastakümneid on kasutanud NASA. Nimelt tehakse igast olulisemast arvutusest teine versioon, mis tugineb samadele sisenditele, kuid mille koostaja pole esimest kalkulatsiooni näinud ja teeb nullist täiesti uue kalkulatsiooni. Loogiliselt peaks tulemus tulema sama. Kui ei tule, saab hakata otsima, kus on viga. Loogiline ja otseselt tulemusele suunatud tegevus.
*TrafficLights.xla peaks olema downloaditav sellelt lingilt: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/eusprig/files/TrafficLights.xla, aga selleks peab vist selle Yahoo-grupiga liituma.
Friday, May 30, 2008
Edusammudest prositutsiooni-vastasel mõttevahetuses
Kui veel aasta tagasi proovisid sotsiaalministeeriumi ametnikud võidelda prostitutsiooni legaalsuse vastu tavapäraste "prostitutsioon tuleb keelustada, sest prosituute vägistatakse ja kasutatakse ära" argumentidega, siis viimasel ajal olen täheldanud positiivset nihet prostitutsiooniga tegelevate inimeste argumentatsioonis.
Hiljuti ilmus Päevalehes kaks artiklit, kus prostitutsiooniteemat lahati.
Esimeses kirjutas Imre Rammul, et valdkonna peamiseks varjuküljeks on inimkaubandus ja lahenduseks pakkus laiemat diskussiooni ühiskonnas, mis prostitutsiooni hukka mõistaks: "alustuseks on vaja suuremat arutelu, mitte pimesi keelamist."
Teises artiklis rõhutas Iris Pettai, et tegeleda tuleks pigem prostitutsiooni algpõhjustega:
Hiljuti ilmus Päevalehes kaks artiklit, kus prostitutsiooniteemat lahati.
Esimeses kirjutas Imre Rammul, et valdkonna peamiseks varjuküljeks on inimkaubandus ja lahenduseks pakkus laiemat diskussiooni ühiskonnas, mis prostitutsiooni hukka mõistaks: "alustuseks on vaja suuremat arutelu, mitte pimesi keelamist."
Teises artiklis rõhutas Iris Pettai, et tegeleda tuleks pigem prostitutsiooni algpõhjustega:
Eestis unustatakse ära või ei taheta teada, et nende tüdrukute elus, kes valivad prostitutsiooni “vabatahtlikult”, on varem tavaliselt olnud suuremaid ja väiksemaid õnnetusi, mida kinnitavad ka uuringutulemused. Ligikaudu pooled tüdrukud on lapsena olnud pedofiilia või intsesti ohvrid, kinnitasid esindusliku Eesti seksitöötajate uuringu tulemused 2005. aastal. Kolmandik lapsprostituutidest on pärit lastekodudest, selgus samast. Lisame siia nimistusse perevägivalla, alkohoolikutest vanemad, koolikiusamise jm tegurid, mida ühiskond pole märganud ega nendele noortele appi tulnud.Siiski ei ole ma nõus, et nende teemadega tuleks hakata võitlema selleks, et vähendada prostitutsiooni. Pedofiilia, intsest, perevägivald ja koolikiusamine pole aspektid, mis viivad prostitutsioonini. Pedofiilia, intsest, perevägivald ja koolikiusamine on iseseisvad ühiskondlikud pahed, mille vastu tuleb võidelda. Erinevalt prostitutsioonist ei saa nende kohta tuua ühtki filosoofilist õigustust nagu prostitutsiooni kohta, et tegemist on täiskasvanute vahel vabal tahtel põhineval tehingul.
Thursday, May 29, 2008
Tartu beware - Jüri Liim is after occupiers monuments!
Although i am not very supportive of Jüri Liim style nationalism, i think his hands-on approach to his fight against anything reminding communism is kinda cool. Last week he rented a movable crane and took down two Soviet-time monuments which he found insulting for independent Estonia (read here and here). As expected, the Russian media quickly rushed to condemn the removal of "two statues of Soviet World War II heroes". Considering that one of the two statues was for Hans Pöögelmann, who was killed by Stalin's order in 1938, it seems that for Russian media WWII is a very general and flexible term indeed.
However, i think Tartu should watch out now. So why should Liim stop at removing Soviet-time monuments from University back-yards, when Tartu displays former occupiers in the very center of the city. Firstly, there is the statue of Swedish conquerer Gustav II Adolf right behind the main university building. Swedes occupied most of the Estonia for most of the 16th and 17th century. More notably, there is the statue of Russian military chief Barclay de Tolly with a nice small park. Definitely these two guys were more responsible for the Swedish and Russian occupation than bunch of school-children participating (and dying) in WWII to whom the other of the removed monuments was erected. So if you see Liim renting a crane again, you should warn the Tartu city government.
However, i think Tartu should watch out now. So why should Liim stop at removing Soviet-time monuments from University back-yards, when Tartu displays former occupiers in the very center of the city. Firstly, there is the statue of Swedish conquerer Gustav II Adolf right behind the main university building. Swedes occupied most of the Estonia for most of the 16th and 17th century. More notably, there is the statue of Russian military chief Barclay de Tolly with a nice small park. Definitely these two guys were more responsible for the Swedish and Russian occupation than bunch of school-children participating (and dying) in WWII to whom the other of the removed monuments was erected. So if you see Liim renting a crane again, you should warn the Tartu city government.
Tuesday, May 27, 2008
Tallinn lost 400 million EEK in a court case
There were some discussion a little while ago that Tallinn plans to borrow 1 billion kroons (ca. €64m) without even having specific plans what to do with the money. Well, today Baltic Business News reports that:
What is currently more interesting, however, is that the 125 cases may easily amount to some 10 000 m2 of prime real estate, which could be valued at some 400 million EEK (€26m) in total. Well that is quite an expense for the capital city (ca. 7% of 2008 budget) and quite an outflow of funds from Estonia. That is also more than half of the amount Estonia had to pay as the infamous "sugar fine".
in March the Supreme Court ruled that the City of Tallinn must revise 125 cases concerning former property of so-called Umsiedlers who owned property in Tallinn before World War II, but left it behind when they went to live in Germany. In all these 125 cases the City decided that the pre-war owner had no right to claim the property or compensation.The issue is very contraversial, and i probably tend to side with the Tallinn City in this argument. But this is a longer story.
Most of the property in question is apartments and houses in attractive areas, mainly in central Tallinn or even Tallinn Old Town.
What is currently more interesting, however, is that the 125 cases may easily amount to some 10 000 m2 of prime real estate, which could be valued at some 400 million EEK (€26m) in total. Well that is quite an expense for the capital city (ca. 7% of 2008 budget) and quite an outflow of funds from Estonia. That is also more than half of the amount Estonia had to pay as the infamous "sugar fine".
Monday, May 26, 2008
Läti haldusreform
Vähemalt haldusreformi läbiviimise kohapealt paistavad lätlased meist ees olevat. Nimelt kirjutab ETV24, et Läti plaanib 500 omavalitsuse asemel moodustada 103 novadsit ja 9 vabariikliku linna. Kaotatakse ka senised 26 rajooni. Projekti sujuvamaks läbiviimiseks antakse igale "vabatahtlikult" ühinevale omavalitsusele riigi eelarvest 4,5 miljonit krooni toetust. Ehk peaks meilgi kaaluma altkäemaksuga omavalitsusi efektiivsemaks meelitada.
Sunday, May 25, 2008
Lithuanian Commercial Register
I have recently tried to gather information about some Lihtuanian companies. As in Estonia and Latvia companies have to submit their full annual financial reports to local commercial register and these reports and ownership data are readily available, i was quite surprised that the Lithuanian commercial register only has the balance sheet, profit and loss statement and cash flow statement of each company. Also, i was unable to get any ownership data for most of the companies.
What more, as i was explained by a helpful employee of the company, such data is not available online so i had to send an e-mail about the companies i was interested in, then i was invoiced 1.45 EUR per page for the reports and then they mailed them to me by usual mail (it took a week to arrive). Well, it was nice that each of the copy had a stamp of the register, stamp "Kopija tikra" and a stamp with the name of the employee + handwritten date and signature (on every single page!) but that was not really what i needed.
In Estonia at least all the annual reports are scanned and posted on the register web-page and other information (including about management and owners) is available in standardized forms. However, as 1-2 euros is charged for downloading each report, you still have to sign some kind of contract and somehow transfer the funds to the register. So it might be a bit troublesome for a foreigner.
That made me think - are the 2 euros really worth it? Maybe it would be easier to make the companies to submit their reports electronically and make them automatically available for anyone interested free of charge. After all, it should be in the general interests of the state to provide transparent information about local businesses to potential foreign investors and counterparties in trade. (unless you believe that it is the government's role to protect our economy from the negative effects of international business and especially from all those foreigners buying up our companies).
But first of all, the Lithuanians should really reform their services in the commercial register and demand a little more thorough reporting from their companies. A helpful, active young lady (she sent one e-mail to me on Sunday evening) with good english and nice hand-writing is just not enough.
What more, as i was explained by a helpful employee of the company, such data is not available online so i had to send an e-mail about the companies i was interested in, then i was invoiced 1.45 EUR per page for the reports and then they mailed them to me by usual mail (it took a week to arrive). Well, it was nice that each of the copy had a stamp of the register, stamp "Kopija tikra" and a stamp with the name of the employee + handwritten date and signature (on every single page!) but that was not really what i needed.
In Estonia at least all the annual reports are scanned and posted on the register web-page and other information (including about management and owners) is available in standardized forms. However, as 1-2 euros is charged for downloading each report, you still have to sign some kind of contract and somehow transfer the funds to the register. So it might be a bit troublesome for a foreigner.
That made me think - are the 2 euros really worth it? Maybe it would be easier to make the companies to submit their reports electronically and make them automatically available for anyone interested free of charge. After all, it should be in the general interests of the state to provide transparent information about local businesses to potential foreign investors and counterparties in trade. (unless you believe that it is the government's role to protect our economy from the negative effects of international business and especially from all those foreigners buying up our companies).
But first of all, the Lithuanians should really reform their services in the commercial register and demand a little more thorough reporting from their companies. A helpful, active young lady (she sent one e-mail to me on Sunday evening) with good english and nice hand-writing is just not enough.
Wednesday, May 21, 2008
Päeva lause
"No kuulge, mis tähendab – meeldib avalik haldus? Eestlasele ei saa meeldida olla bürokraat."Juhan Parts Eesti noorte rumalusest haridustee valikul. HEI nr. 2- 2008
Tuesday, May 20, 2008
Riigikogu palgavaidlus riivab minu õiglustunnet!
Minu arvates on Riigikogulaste aja viitmine selle peale, kes ja kuidas määrab Riigikogulaste palga, ajaraiskamine. Veel suurem ajaraiskamine on see, kui mingid targad inimesed hakkavad igal aastal või iga nelja aasta tagant oma aega kulutama sellele, et arutada ja vaagida riigikoguliikmete uut palka. Lõppude lõpuks on ju 5 000 krooni kuus siia või sinnapoole kuupalga muutust kuus ainult ca. 8 miljonit krooni aastas kogu Riigikogu peale. See on üsna tühiasi võrreldes 3,1 miljardiga, mille võrra vähendatakse lisa-eelarvega selle aasta eelarve kulusid.
Minu õiglustunnet riivab, et riigikogulased tegelevad nii mõttetu teemaga, aga ma olen oma riivatuses vist üsna üksi...
Minu õiglustunnet riivab, et riigikogulased tegelevad nii mõttetu teemaga, aga ma olen oma riivatuses vist üsna üksi...
Wednesday, May 14, 2008
Estonian GDP growth - OMG!
That was much worse than i expected:
According to Statistics Estonia, by flash estimations gross domestic product (GDP) growth was 0.4% in Estonia in the 1st quarter of 2008 compared to the same quarter in the previous year.That is pretty hard landing. Quite on the level with Latvia and the worst quarter for at least 12 years (the worst quarter we saw during 1998 economic crisis was -1,0%).
...
The seasonally adjusted GDP at constant prices decreased by 1.9% in the 1st quarter of 2008 compared to the 4th quarter.
Magnumil ei lubatud osta Saku Apteeki
Äripäev teatab:
Kuna ei tea antud otsuse tausta, ei oska ka täpsemalt kommenteerida. Kui Sakus on praegu mitu erinevat apteeki ja pärast tehingut oleks jäänud ainult üks, on otsus kindlasti põhjendatud. Pressiteatest (ja kes meil siis pressiteates sisulisi asju räägib) räägitakse küll pigem Tallinna ja lähiümbruse turust. Kui koondumise keelamise põhjus oli argumenteeritud sellega, et Saku apteegi ostmine vähendaks apteekide konkurentsi Tallinnas, siis see tundub natuke kauge põhjendus. Vaevalt, et hakkaksin selle pärast Sakusse sõitma, et seal rohud paar krooni odavamad. Aga mina pole ka kindlasti apteekide põhiklientuur.
Huvitav on ka veel see, et apteekide turg on riiklikult üsna reguleeritud just nimelt konkurentsi vastu. Apteekide litsentside arv on piiratud, kuigi nende tahtjaid palju. Kusjuures litsentside vähesuses pole määravaks teguriks mitte apteekide suutmatus nõuetele vastata, vaid lihtsalt riiklik otsus apteekide arvu vähendada. Kas poleks lihtsam tihedamat konkurentsi tagada vabama litsentside jagamisega, kui Konkurentsiametipoolsete ettekirjutustega?
Konkurentsiamet otsustas 8. mail keelata aktsiaseltsi Magnum kontserni kuuluva tütarettevõtja Terve Pere Apteek OÜ ja OÜ Saku Apteek koondumise.Minu teada on see üks esimesi koondumisekeelde Eestis üldse. Siiani on Konkurentsiamet tegelenud peamiselt ikka lihtsalt dokumentide kogumise ja kontrollimisega. Kui eelmise nädala liigutus märgib Konkurentsiameti otsust hakata mängima mingit olulisemat rolli Eesti majanduses, siis on see ainult tervitatav.
Kuna ei tea antud otsuse tausta, ei oska ka täpsemalt kommenteerida. Kui Sakus on praegu mitu erinevat apteeki ja pärast tehingut oleks jäänud ainult üks, on otsus kindlasti põhjendatud. Pressiteatest (ja kes meil siis pressiteates sisulisi asju räägib) räägitakse küll pigem Tallinna ja lähiümbruse turust. Kui koondumise keelamise põhjus oli argumenteeritud sellega, et Saku apteegi ostmine vähendaks apteekide konkurentsi Tallinnas, siis see tundub natuke kauge põhjendus. Vaevalt, et hakkaksin selle pärast Sakusse sõitma, et seal rohud paar krooni odavamad. Aga mina pole ka kindlasti apteekide põhiklientuur.
Huvitav on ka veel see, et apteekide turg on riiklikult üsna reguleeritud just nimelt konkurentsi vastu. Apteekide litsentside arv on piiratud, kuigi nende tahtjaid palju. Kusjuures litsentside vähesuses pole määravaks teguriks mitte apteekide suutmatus nõuetele vastata, vaid lihtsalt riiklik otsus apteekide arvu vähendada. Kas poleks lihtsam tihedamat konkurentsi tagada vabama litsentside jagamisega, kui Konkurentsiametipoolsete ettekirjutustega?
Saturday, May 10, 2008
Latvia is landing hard!
Yesterday, Latvia reported its flash estimate of GDP growth:
As Latvia does not reporte seasonally adjusted figures, those interested in quarterly changes are left to do their own calculations. According to my calculations Q1 2008 saw a 4,2% (non-seasonally-adjusted) quarterly contraction in economic activity. On average from 1996 to 2007, the first quarter in Latvia had 2,1% slower growth than the average quarterly growth. So as 2,1% - 4,2% = -2,1 so i believe that
in Q1 2008 Latvian economy contracted 2,1%
That is definitely hard landing! I mean this is quarterly contraction, not annual. USA for example likes to report quarterly GDP figures in annualised rates. That would be 8,4% for Latvia now!
Okay, that figure should be taken with a pinch of salt. Firstly, my calculations are not exactly proper statistical seasonality analysis. Nor did i correct for any changes in working days. Latvian Abroad blogger reaches for a little softer 1,9% economic contraction, but these were also back-of-the-envelope calculations.
Secondly, this is just the first estimate and during periods of quick change, these estimates can be off by a wide margin.
Thirdly, some people believe that q-o-q growth rates in such a small economy as Latvia is nonsense anyway - the effects of large transactions can strongly influence the figures and the statistical adjustments can be really irrelevant as there is less seasonality and more one-time fluctuations.
For those interested in the developments, i suggest to follow the Baltic Economy Watch and Latvian Abroad blogs for best available up to date economic analysis of the country. The updated figures for Latvian GDP will be published on June 9th. Estonian flash estimate of GDP growth will come on May 14th.
In accordance with flash estimate published the CSB, which is based on currently available statistical data and econometric models, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased by 3.6%, compared to first quarter of 2007.3.6% is a pretty scary figure considering that it includes the high growth 2nd and 3rd quarter of 2007.
As Latvia does not reporte seasonally adjusted figures, those interested in quarterly changes are left to do their own calculations. According to my calculations Q1 2008 saw a 4,2% (non-seasonally-adjusted) quarterly contraction in economic activity. On average from 1996 to 2007, the first quarter in Latvia had 2,1% slower growth than the average quarterly growth. So as 2,1% - 4,2% = -2,1 so i believe that
in Q1 2008 Latvian economy contracted 2,1%
That is definitely hard landing! I mean this is quarterly contraction, not annual. USA for example likes to report quarterly GDP figures in annualised rates. That would be 8,4% for Latvia now!
Okay, that figure should be taken with a pinch of salt. Firstly, my calculations are not exactly proper statistical seasonality analysis. Nor did i correct for any changes in working days. Latvian Abroad blogger reaches for a little softer 1,9% economic contraction, but these were also back-of-the-envelope calculations.
Secondly, this is just the first estimate and during periods of quick change, these estimates can be off by a wide margin.
Thirdly, some people believe that q-o-q growth rates in such a small economy as Latvia is nonsense anyway - the effects of large transactions can strongly influence the figures and the statistical adjustments can be really irrelevant as there is less seasonality and more one-time fluctuations.
For those interested in the developments, i suggest to follow the Baltic Economy Watch and Latvian Abroad blogs for best available up to date economic analysis of the country. The updated figures for Latvian GDP will be published on June 9th. Estonian flash estimate of GDP growth will come on May 14th.
Wednesday, May 07, 2008
Danske new forecasts for the Baltics
Today, Danske Bank has issued new macroeconomic forecasts for Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Shortly, Danske predicts 2,5% GDP growth for Estonia for 2008 and 3% for 2009. They also estimate that currently the long term trend growth rate for Estonia should be around 3-4% due to high imbalances in the economy. For Latvia, Danske has even gloomier picture with 2-3% GDP growth for this year and 2% in 2009.
Lithuania is expected to grow 5% in 2008 and 4% in 2009. To me it seems that the main reason for higher forecasts for Lithuania is that the slowdown started later there, so the forecasts might come down as they have for Estonia and Lithuania. 5% seems especially optimistic after the -0,2% growth in Q1 of 2008.
One interesting graph i found was the share of private consumption in GDP:
Estonia:
Latvia:
Lithuania:
I never thought that the private consumption is that much smaller in Estonia than in neighbouring countries and that it has been actually falling during last 5 years (which is quite different from the other Baltic States). If it is really so, that should mean that less money has spent on pointless TV-sets and restaurant bills in Estonia and more has been invested...
But this is just one piece of the whole picture and i really don't know what to think about it yet. Just interesting...
Lithuania is expected to grow 5% in 2008 and 4% in 2009. To me it seems that the main reason for higher forecasts for Lithuania is that the slowdown started later there, so the forecasts might come down as they have for Estonia and Lithuania. 5% seems especially optimistic after the -0,2% growth in Q1 of 2008.
One interesting graph i found was the share of private consumption in GDP:
Estonia:
Latvia:
Lithuania:
I never thought that the private consumption is that much smaller in Estonia than in neighbouring countries and that it has been actually falling during last 5 years (which is quite different from the other Baltic States). If it is really so, that should mean that less money has spent on pointless TV-sets and restaurant bills in Estonia and more has been invested...
But this is just one piece of the whole picture and i really don't know what to think about it yet. Just interesting...
Tuesday, May 06, 2008
Tänased uudised
Üha enam uudiseid saan ma blogosfääri vahendusel. Ja selgub, et pikkade pühade ajal on nii mõndagi juhtunud:
Leiboristid said näiteks UK kohalikel valimistel kolmanda koha. Päris halb tulemus valitsevale parteile "kahepartei" süsteemis. Ja Livingstone jäi Londoni linnapea kohast ilma. Selleks saab nüüd Boris Johnson.
Lätlased jälle on mures oma salatite pesemise pärast.
Aga enamus uudiseid ja blogisid veel lugemata, niiet sealt leiab kindlasti veelgi huvitavat.
Leiboristid said näiteks UK kohalikel valimistel kolmanda koha. Päris halb tulemus valitsevale parteile "kahepartei" süsteemis. Ja Livingstone jäi Londoni linnapea kohast ilma. Selleks saab nüüd Boris Johnson.
Lätlased jälle on mures oma salatite pesemise pärast.
Aga enamus uudiseid ja blogisid veel lugemata, niiet sealt leiab kindlasti veelgi huvitavat.
Wednesday, April 30, 2008
Gräzini arusaam turumajandusest on vildakas
Nagu aru olen saanud, pole Reformierakond enam ammu liberaalset majanduspoliitikat toetav uuendusmeelne erakond vaid üha enam sotsiaaldemokraatlikusse populismi kalduv. Nüüd on Gräzin võtnud nõuks hakata rääkima äri õiglusest ja röövkapitalistide eba-eetlistest tegudest lihtsate elanike kallal.
Gräzini väitel on 60 000 inimest langenud SMS-laenude ohvriks (kangesti tahaks viidet). Mida tähendab Gräzini jaoks ohvriks langemine? Peamiselt seda, et SMS-laene reklaamitakse pettusega, kuna ei avaldata nende aastaintressi. Kuigi üldjoontes olen nõus, et mida rohkem infot klient saab, seda parem. Aga samas - kui oluline on sms-laenu puhul aasta intress. Kui mul on vaja 2000 krooni, siis minu jaoks on oluline, kui palju ma palgapäeval tagasi pean maksma, mitte aasta-intress. Kindlasti ei ole laen minu jaoks kaks korda soodsam selle pärast, et mul on palgapäevani kaks korda rohkem aega kui samas hädas oleval sõbral (kuigi aastapõhine intress on ju 2 korda väiksem). Sama tobe oleks nõuda, et apteegis peaks ravimite juures olema ka kilohind, muidu saavad inimesed petta.
Lisaks väidab Gräzin, et
Kuidas aga Gräzin põhjendab, et Hansapanga ja laenaja vaheline tehing on tehtud võrdsete osapoolte vahel, aga sms-laenukontori ja laenaja vahel laiutab meeletu ebavõrdsus. Parimaks võrdsuse ja mõistliku tulu teenimise tagajaks on konkurents, mistõttu on tervitatav, et sms-laenukontoreid on tekkinud kiiresti ja palju - kui sellest äris oleks õiglane tulu märkimisväärselt madalam, oleks konkurendid ka madalamat hinda pakkumas.
Kui aga Gräzini argument on selles, et lihtsalt sms-laenu võtja on meeleheitel inimene, kes teeb tehinguid, mis on talle kahjulikud ja pankade "õiglus" väljendub sellistele inimestele laenamisest keeldumises, siis on see lausa jabur. Sel juhul peaksime keelama ka näljasele inimesele leiba müümast - "enne mine saa kõht täis, muidu ostad veel liiga kalli hinnaga"!
Aga ehk on asi hoopis selles, et osavate poliitikutena on Reformarid otsustanud oma valijaskonda vahetada. Kui tõusval turul tuli keskenduda edukatele õlale patsutamisele, siis nüüd on poliitilise valuutana tegijad nende hääled, kes tunnevad, et hakkab halvemini minema.
Gräzini väitel on 60 000 inimest langenud SMS-laenude ohvriks (kangesti tahaks viidet). Mida tähendab Gräzini jaoks ohvriks langemine? Peamiselt seda, et SMS-laene reklaamitakse pettusega, kuna ei avaldata nende aastaintressi. Kuigi üldjoontes olen nõus, et mida rohkem infot klient saab, seda parem. Aga samas - kui oluline on sms-laenu puhul aasta intress. Kui mul on vaja 2000 krooni, siis minu jaoks on oluline, kui palju ma palgapäeval tagasi pean maksma, mitte aasta-intress. Kindlasti ei ole laen minu jaoks kaks korda soodsam selle pärast, et mul on palgapäevani kaks korda rohkem aega kui samas hädas oleval sõbral (kuigi aastapõhine intress on ju 2 korda väiksem). Sama tobe oleks nõuda, et apteegis peaks ravimite juures olema ka kilohind, muidu saavad inimesed petta.
Lisaks väidab Gräzin, et
Lisaks pettusele (valereklaam) ja amoraalsusele on kiirlaenude aluseks ka olulise eraõigusliku põhimõtte rikkumine. Tehingust saadav tulu peab olema mõistlik ja tehing sõlmitud enam-vähem võrdsete poolte vahel. Kõnealusel juhul on sõlmijateks võimas rahatuus ja meeleheitel olev inimene, kellelt tahetakse võtta viimane. Võlaõigusseadus ütleb otse: tehing ei tohi olla moraalipõhimõtete vastane ja tsiviilõiguse üldosast (§ 86) teame, et heade kommetega vastuolus olev tehing on tühine.Sellised mõtted sobiksid hästi sotsialistliku riiklikult reguleeritava majanduse juhtimiseks, aga kindlasti mitte maailma majandusevabaduse indeksites esikohta jahtivale riigile. Minu arvates on tehingust saadav mõistlik tulu selline, mida mõlemad tehingu pooled on nõus vabatahtlikult maksma. See tulu on erinev erinevates olukordades ja erinevates tehingutes. Tihti ei sõltu see üldse tehingu pooltest ega tehingu iseloomust vaid välistest mõjuritest - nii näiteks on täna kodulaen kallim lihtsalt selle pärast, et Euribor on tõusnud! Minu arvates täiesti eba-õiglane, aga siiski ei leia ma, et see oleks heade äritavadega vastuolus.
Kuidas aga Gräzin põhjendab, et Hansapanga ja laenaja vaheline tehing on tehtud võrdsete osapoolte vahel, aga sms-laenukontori ja laenaja vahel laiutab meeletu ebavõrdsus. Parimaks võrdsuse ja mõistliku tulu teenimise tagajaks on konkurents, mistõttu on tervitatav, et sms-laenukontoreid on tekkinud kiiresti ja palju - kui sellest äris oleks õiglane tulu märkimisväärselt madalam, oleks konkurendid ka madalamat hinda pakkumas.
Kui aga Gräzini argument on selles, et lihtsalt sms-laenu võtja on meeleheitel inimene, kes teeb tehinguid, mis on talle kahjulikud ja pankade "õiglus" väljendub sellistele inimestele laenamisest keeldumises, siis on see lausa jabur. Sel juhul peaksime keelama ka näljasele inimesele leiba müümast - "enne mine saa kõht täis, muidu ostad veel liiga kalli hinnaga"!
Aga ehk on asi hoopis selles, et osavate poliitikutena on Reformarid otsustanud oma valijaskonda vahetada. Kui tõusval turul tuli keskenduda edukatele õlale patsutamisele, siis nüüd on poliitilise valuutana tegijad nende hääled, kes tunnevad, et hakkab halvemini minema.
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